How am I feeling...next Wednesday?

What if you knew what was going to happen in the next two days? I would bet on the lottery number that I knew was coming up and, perhaps, avoid some of the mistakes I almost certainly would make.

 

This might sound a bit like science fiction but researchers at the Center for Future Health at the University of Rochester are beginning to demonstrate that people with heart disease will be able to know their health status future and be able to take action to change it. Under that scenario, I would be able to take action on Thursday so that I’d be able to dance at my daughter’s wedding Saturday night.

 

This is not as far fetched as it might sound. Engineers have been using sensors to monitor the “health” of machines so that they can predict and avoid failures, and they have teamed with medical professionals and computer scientists to see if they can develop comfortably wearable devices that can measure and interpret signals that can define a health index that adapts as it learns more about the individual who is wearing it. Such a system can translate those learnings into actions that can help the end user get better or alert others that other actions need to be taken.

 

Early results are promising. Working with a small sample of patients and healthy people, they’ve found that they can use sensors that are easy to wear, collect appropriate data and can transfer readings to a smart phone. They can distinguish between healthy and sick people and detect changes that seem to presage future events. They’ve even been able to build a wearable prototype as a proof of concept. The patients (from varied backgrounds) that have volunteered to be part of this project are all engaged and enthusiastic.

 

However, there are a huge number of questions that need answers. Data are being collected in a way that they haven’t before so interpretation is not yet validated or refined. It’s still unclear what needs to be collected and how good a job one can do in predicting future events. Does the methodology generalize to other conditions? How will the health profession be engaged and participate? There are certainly more questions than answers at this point.

 

But we have learned that the field of machine monitoring and prediction can teach us something about health management. And maybe, someday, I’ll discovery the winning lottery number a day before it’s picked.

Comments

[Alice Pentland]

The opportunities presented by learning, personalized systems based on individual health data are huge. The most memorable aspect of working with heart failure patients to build our prototype system was the strong emotional engagement they showed about our project. They really feel trapped by the state of their health, and are often unable to decipher what path they might take to improve it. They were so enthusiastic about being able to ask a simple question of the system like "is my stamina good enough for a hour walk?" Our early data suggest passively collected health information can be analyzed real-time, and an answer given such as "No, but you'll be able to go for a half hour". Our patients tell us such information lightens the tyranny of their disease and gives them back some control over lives. They want it in their hands now!

[Cecelia Horwitz]

Given that the goal is to have a smart system for real-time personalized health monitoring, we believe that the same platform will enable self-care for people with other chronic conditions as well, such as COPD and depression. However, the special needs of people with dementia will be better served by very targeted smart technologies, which are being developed by several other research groups.

[Phillip Gurbacki]

There is an interesting website that has news and information regarding both machine and personal health monitoring and failure predictions: http://www.phminfo.com