A landmark first for the Archimedes model
At the very end of March, study findings were released in the online edition of The Lancet indicating that it is more effective from a cost and detection standpoint to begin screening for Type 2 diabetes in people between the ages of 30 and 45 — 15 years ahead of what established guidelines had been recommending. Subsequent screenings should take place every three to five years thereafter.
While this is an important result for the medical community, the most significant piece of this story, in our opinion, was not covered in the news. What really caught our attention was the fact that this was the first time The Lancet has ever published a peer-reviewed paper for which the research was based entirely on a simulated population and treatment options existing within a mathematical model – in this case, the Archimedes model of human physiology, diseases, interventions and health care systems.
For the study, the researchers simulated a population of 325,000 nondiabetic 30-year-olds. According to Archimedes President and CEO John Beasley, “This paper presents the results of an international study that would never have been possible using an actual clinical trial. It would have required enrolling and following more than a million people for 45 years; the cost would have been astronomical. The study examined the criteria for deciding when to screen for diabetes and Archimedes was the only model that could conduct a clinical trial simulation at this advanced level.”
We’re excited to see validation of the strength of the Archimedes methodology at this level. Watch the blog for more updates soon on the status of the ARCHeS project, which will make it possible for public and health policy leaders to access the model to conduct their own virtual clinical trials from their desktops. The vision is that a wide variety of key decisions will be informed by equally strong results from the model’s predictive analyses, and the sharing of findings powered by Archimedes will become common practice in peer-reviewed journals.